Comgest's Strauss : China looks 'nasty'

Outspoken emerging markets fund manager Vincent Strauss of Comgest says the situation in China looks 'nasty' but thinks it will continue to thrive for as long as its symbiotic relationship with the US can continue.

Currently fears are growing over accelerating Chinese inflation, which was up to 2.8% in April compared to 2.4% in March, and the looming prospect of tightening measures.

'We are in the middle of something which may be nasty,' said Strauss, who runs the €3 billion Magellan and €1.4 billion Comgest Growth Emerging Markets funds.

'The banks are in bad shape in China, but it's not really that important as it is not a market economy : the banks are just the best way for politicans to transmit their decisions into the real economy,' he told Citywire. 'Because they control the banks, it is not a problem as long as they have liquidity. But where from? It is from the odd couple of China and the US. The US cannot produce what it consumes and China cannot consume what it produces.'
'While we have this G2 tango, it is nice and creating liquidity out of nothing,' Strauss said, adding that a new Bretton Woods is needed. However he does not believe this will happen as the US needs to keep its 'fantastic advantage' of having the currency of the world. 'Which means, as Bernanke used to say, they can print money at no cost. And China will continue to accept these dollars.'
'But at some stage one of the odd couple will quit the tango and then we will get trouble,' he says, adding that opinions on China are always polarised. 'On one side you have the permanent China bulls, always saying "China, China, China, it has a great business model and will be the driver of the world." And on the other side you have the perma-bears saying "this is a big bubble set to burst".'
However some leading Chinese firms' self confidence is starting to remind him of another Asian economy which ran into difficulty. 'It is not yet a problem, but I can remember when Japan was becoming arrogant at the end of the eighties and when Silicon valley were so arrogant in the nineties. When arrogance is at the peak - which is not the case yet - it is normally the end of the game.'
Strauss thinks inflation in China 'is a real story, because the authorities cannot manipulate everything.' When tightening inevitably arrives, 'we will discover all of a sudden that the fantastic business model of China is not all we thought it was,' he warned.

'In the next 18 months who knows what could happen? We will probably discover that end demand is not that strong in China : consumption is way to low to absorb all the products China Inc is producing.
'But maybe this game can last longer than people think. Everything is linked to the credit line between China and the US. Who can predict when music will stop or one of the couple decides to quit the dance?'
With his own funds, Strauss owns companies in China which will not suffer from overcapacity problems, which he sees as the main threat to Chinese firms. 'Even though there may be nasty surprises, you can't get out of such a market.'
Tellingly, some fund managers focused exclusively on China are also becoming cautious on the country, including the manager of Robeco's Chinese equity fund, Victoria Mio.
Mio warns that attempts to dampen the exuberant property market will add to downside risk in the stockmarket. These moves include restrictions on lending to non-resident buyers, higher down payments for buyers and the banning of mortgages for third-home purchases.
'The policies are blunt instruments and may well inflict temporary pain on some parts of the economy and on the stock markets,' she said.
However, if the measures are successful in lowering real estate prices, the dreaded tightening threat could be averted, Liu thinks.

(Philip Haddon - Citywire - 12/05/10)