Bonjour à tous ! Merci de vous arrêter un instant sur mon blog financier...
Vous pouvez y découvrir le suivi de mon portefeuille boursier, un portefeuille réel géré seul depuis 2006. Mes investissements pour le très long terme sont réalisés à travers une sélection de fonds de placement (aussi appelés OPCVM ou Sicav).
Pour consulter les lignes précises du portefeuille, allez dans les menus sur la colonne de droite, puis à la rubrique "Mon portefeuille".
En plus de vous tenir au courant de l'évolution de ce portefeuille, je serai amené à poster des commentaires sur mes idées du moment, des articles que je trouve intéressant... etc. N'hésitez pas à laisser vos commentaires, suggestions ou questions.

mercredi 27 mai 2009

Portefeuille : Renforcement

Pour le mois de mai, j'ai renforcé cette semaine le fonds MEI Roemeneï en Bulgarije ; l'achat s'est fait aujourd'hui à la VL de 6,58 euros.

mardi 12 mai 2009

Portefeuille : 9 semaines de hausse, un record depuis sa création

Le portefeuille affiche au 08 mai un rendement YTD de +23,62%, contre +9,62% pour le tracker ETF Lyxor MSCI World, soit une surperformance de 14% !

Bien sûr il n'y a pas beaucoup de mérite à cela...
J'écrivais il y a quelques jours sur un forum : les gens complètement investis qui n'ont jamais rien vendu profitent pleinement du rebond parce qu'ils le méritent... ils ont pleinement profité des baisses !
Ma perte par rapport aux plus hauts est encore importante, mais je ne compte pas pour l'instant changer ma stratégie d'investissement régulier (ou si vous préférez ma stratégie "Buy & Hold"), à une date que je choisis dans le mois. Je garde ma confiance aux gérants de fonds que j'ai sélectionné car je sais que rien n'est plus difficile que de trouver le bon timing.
Pourtant je n'exclus pas personnellement de nouvelles baisses de 20% ou plus... on verra bien

Russian supermarkets : growth continues despite crisis

Quelques infos sur des sociétés présentes dans le fonds MEI Rusland Midcap Fund...

Despite the economic crisis which also hits Russia, Russian supermarkets continue to grow significantly. Especially large supermarket chains like Magnit and X5 Retail maintain their revenue targets and even see their profitability increasing. Moreover, these players are able to take advantage of the current situation.

Conservative players strike
As a result of a strong rise in disposable incomes of Russian citizens, the retail sector was able to grow rapidly. A large number of players, especially smaller ones, placed their bets on aggressive growth by means of external financing. However, due to the fact that (re-) financing is no option at this moment and growth is slowing, these players are now suffering. On the opposite, players who used a more conservative approach, and thus financed growth by using their own cash flows, take advantage of the situation. They are now able to take over their weak counterparts at very favorable conditions. During conversations between the fund management and a couple of supermarket chains, it became clear that these chains are very active in the search for takeover candidates. This approach is an excellent chance to increase market share.

High level of fragmentation gives rise to consolidation
The Russian supermarket sector is traditionally highly fragmented with the top-10 holding only 13.1% of total market. With annual revenues of EUR 6.3 billion, market leader X5 Retail, after the acquisition of Karousel, holds 3.2% market share. Russian number 2 Magnit has annual revenues of EUR 3.8 billion. In comparison: Albert Heijn reached annual revenues of EUR 9.0 billion in 2008. A consolidation in the sector is very likely and will most probably develop at a higher pace now.

Solid revenue figures during first quarter
Russian supermartket chains were able to report strong revenue growth during the first quarter, despite lower incomes for Russian households. Magnit showed the highest growth rate with 36.3% increase, X5 Retail followed with 28.0%. Dixy lagged behind with 19.0%, due to a reorganization of logistics. The reorganization led to supply problems to its stores during the first quarter. The chains informed that the current difficult economic circumstances for consumers are reflected in lower average tickets. Furthermore, a shift in consumer preferences in certain products is reported.

Opportunities arise in retail
Obviously, the economic crisis does affect the retail sector. But despite the threaths, huge opportunities can also be noted. A discounter like Dixy may benefit from a higher price sensitiveness of consumers. Furthermore, by undertaking well-aimed acquisitions, healthy chains may return stronger out of the crisis. The fund management acknowledges these developments and therefore holds investments in the supermarket chains Magnit (2.0% of fund size), Dixy (1.1%) and X5 Retail Group (0.9%). If necessary, positions will be increased in the near future.

(MEI - 06/05/09)

vendredi 1 mai 2009

Worst is over for Eastern European stocks, says East Capital founder

Peter Elam Håkansson, chairman and head of portfolio management at East Capital, thinks the worst is over for Eastern Europe's stockmarkets and that there is currently an attractive entry point for investors.

Håkansson, who runs a number of funds including the SEK 3.9 billion (€364 million) East Capital Russia fund, has witnessed the Russia RTS index rally 52.3% in the past three months, as the market started to claw back some of the colossal losses made since it fell from its peak in mid-May 2008.

He thinks there are signs that now is a good time for long term investors to finish licking their wounds and re-enter the market.

'If you analyse the market behaviour over the last 6 months I think the worst is behind us,' he says. 'Things have clamed down dramatically. The worst behind us, however that doesn't mean prices will grow very quickly from here on in, it will continue to be volatile and difficult as we will see bad figures come out of the real economy from almost all countries. The message is that you need to be careful when you enter, and it is difficult to time the exact moment to reenter, but now is a good moment to enter for the long term.'
Although the economies of Eastern Europe will continue to face problems in the near term, Håkansson still believes in the long term growth story.

'Despite the economic crisis, the long term economic growth potential of Eastern Europe continues to be huge. Our portfolio managers and analysts are travelling more than ever before. Given the current situation it is extremely valuable to get impressions and information by visiting companies. From experience we know that such situations create very interesting opportunities for dedicated investors.'

There are certain sectors which are particularly worthy of attention, he thinks.

'Retail and consumer sectors are showing positive signs of growth and we have increased our allocation to these sectors,' he says. 'The steel sector is currently looking very attractive in Russia and Ukraine, which are well placed to sell steel on a global scale as their production is very competitive.'

Since its launch in 1998, the East Capital Ryssland fund has returned 576% in dollar terms while the Russian RTS index has risen 258%.

(Philip Haddon - Citywire - 30/04/09)