Bonjour à tous ! Merci de vous arrêter un instant sur mon blog financier...
Vous pouvez y découvrir le suivi de mon portefeuille boursier, un portefeuille réel géré seul depuis 2006. Mes investissements pour le très long terme sont réalisés à travers une sélection de fonds de placement (aussi appelés OPCVM ou Sicav).
Pour consulter les lignes précises du portefeuille, allez dans les menus sur la colonne de droite, puis à la rubrique "Mon portefeuille".
En plus de vous tenir au courant de l'évolution de ce portefeuille, je serai amené à poster des commentaires sur mes idées du moment, des articles que je trouve intéressant... etc. N'hésitez pas à laisser vos commentaires, suggestions ou questions.

lundi 29 juin 2009

Portefeuille : Renforcement

Pour le mois de juin, l'investissement s'est fait ce lundi, sur l'action East Capital Explorer, au prix de 61,68 SEK.
Bien entendu, et ce malgré le rebond entamé depuis le mois de mars, je continue à investir régulièrement en me gardant bien d'écouter les avis contradictoires qui doivent circuler un peu partout sur la toile... !

lundi 22 juin 2009

Europe de l'Est : la dernière lettre d'East Capital (juin 2009)

Voici la dernière lettre très complète, en français, d'East Capital sur les marchés d'Europe de l'Est :
une revue des marchés de Russie et CEI, des marchés baltes, d'Europe Centrale et d'Europe du sud-est ainsi qu'un point sur les différents portefeuilles.

le lien pour télécharger le fichier pdf

vendredi 19 juin 2009

First State's Tulloch questions pace of Asia recovery

(Jakarta - Indonésie)

Veteran Asia investor Angus Tulloch says the rally in Asian equities will be hit by dampening enthusiasm caused by excessive capacity, rising long term interest rates and the weak financial position of governments.

Over five years, Tulloch is ranked second out of 64 managers in the Asian equity sector in Europe. But he has lagged his peers during the rally of the past quarter, finding himself ranked 138/163 for the three months up to the end of May with his First State Asia Pacific and First State Asia Pacific Leaders funds.
Tulloch marginally increased his exposure to cyclicals in March but is not taking a bullish stance on the markets.

"The danger is excessive capacity has not been taken out, for example the steel industry," he said, adding that the weaker financial positions of governments and the prospect of high long term interest rates were also dampening his enthusiasm.
Further growth in the economy, he added, was unlikely to mirror to progress at the rates seen until recently.

Tulloch, who has a long term track record superior to nearly all his rivals in the sector, said the rally was concentrated in areas of the market he has traditionally shirked.

"What has moved has been the heavily cyclical stocks – a lot of the stuff that we find too heavily geared, and areas where we tend to be a bit light anyway," he said.
This has largely been a correction to the sense of "doom" that reigned at the turn of the year, he added.

"There was too much gloom around and the markets were oversold, especially some cyclical stocks," he said.
"There was an extensive period of de-stocking in the economy that came to an end in January and February, and then some very extreme activity by governments to stimulate the economy, and in the short term, it’s been pretty effective."

In the long term, Tulloch said the outlook for Asian economies was healthier than that for the Western world.

"I don’t believe in short term decoupling. But long term, the developed world will tax more and spend less," he said.
He added that the response of Asian firms to the global economic crisis had contrasted markedly with some of their Western counterparts.

"In a way, the whole attitude has been more realistic. With a number of companies, the senior executives have taken cuts to their salaries," he said.

(Daniel Grote - Citywire - 17/06/09)

samedi 13 juin 2009

Le fonds MEI Rusland Midcap versus les indices russes

Des informations intéressantes sur la Russie et en particulier les midcaps, par la maison de gestion Middle Europe Investments...
(le fonds MEI Rusland Midcap est présent dans le portefeuille)

Despite a disappointing January, Russian blue-chips recovered strongly. The main index RTS shows for 2009 an increase of 72.1% (as at end of May 2009). The RTS-2 rose 56.5% this year. Compared to these high yields, the 8.4% yield of MEI-Rusland Midcap Fonds N.V. (RMF) over the same period may seem poor. However, this (short term) result presents a distorted picture. When comparing 1-year yields, the RTS Index performed with a loss of -56.3% almost exactly the same as RMF (-57.7%). RMF even outperforms the RTS-2, which has an 1-year performance of -66.8%.

Tabel 1: RTS indices vs MEI-Rusland Midcap Fonds N.V.




Performance in %


(liquid midcaps)









Distressed sellers
During the sharp decline of the markets, shares suffered from distressed sellers, in particular shares with a higher degree of risk. Blue-chips showed heavy losses, with even a more severe situation within the small- and midcap segment. Investors simply dumped their stocks, as some investors took only small compensations for granted. Due to outflow of assets under management, some market players were forced to sell their shares at any given price.

Trend reversal
Investors reversed their stance at the beginning of March. The larger part of Russian stocks had reached in the meantime Price/Earnings-ratio’s of 2 and were quoted at less than half their actual book value. Large investors viewed this no longer justified and large international funds assigned Russia the status ‘Overweight’. However, liquidity and risk perception are very important issues in this case. Since liquidity is still low, market players focus on the most liquid shares: blue-chips. Risk aversion was still high. Small- and midcap shares with low liquidity and a high degree of risk were still avoided. In case of a continuation of the crisis, investors only looked for shares which could be sold immediately when necessary. Liquidity in the blue-chip segment returned during May 2009 to the level of June last year. However, trading volumes in the small- midcap segment are still considerably lower (see table 2).

Table 2: Trading volumes Russian Stock Exchange

RTS Standard

RTS Board

In USD million



June 2008



January 2009



February 2009



March 2009



April 2009



May 2009



Rank-order in recovery
Since the blue-chips experienced a significant rally, a large part of these shares are now reasonably priced. Market conditions are stabilized for this category of investments. This is the general procedure of recovery of financial markets: investors start by looking for investments that took the hardest hits, but have high liquidity and relatively limited risk. When these investments have reached a comfortable yield, investors are ready to take more risk. Furthermore, the economic decline may have reached the bottom. Smaller and medium-sized companies with a healthy balance sheet and a strong market position are returning on the screens of investors.

Rally small- and midcaps yet to start
An excellent example of this process can be seen within shares of banks. The share price of blue-chip Sberbank has recovered strongly. The smaller Bank St. Petersburg is just regaining investors confidence. Whereas the share price of Sberbank already started to increase in March 2009, Bank St. Petersburg had to wait until the start of May (see table 3).

Table 3: SberBank versus Bank St. Petersburg






Bank St. Petersburg



As a result, the share price of Bank St. Petersburg has yet to start a rally, one can add the excellent fundamentals that are strongly in favor of this smaller bank (see table 4).

Table 4: Fundamentals SberBank en Bank St. Petersburg

Market cap


Price/Book value

Non performance Loans

(USD m)



2010 2008 2009 2010


end '09











Bank St. Petersburg










Deceiving flickering
Although it’s very tempting to state that RMF is underperforming the Russian stock market, it’s too hasty to claim this. MEI-Rusland Midcap Fonds N.V. invests in small- and midcap companies which it expects to outperform the economic growth. A sector such as infrastructure is marked by companies with huge growth potential, but also low liquidity. This sector hasn’t really moved since the rally in blue-chips, while the 2008 figures are in general very convincing.

A YTD of 72.4% for the RTS Index looks fantastic, but the 1-year performance of -56.3% is very disappointing. The rally in blue-chips is, or maybe was, very strong, though valuations are now normal again. We expect that investors in Russia will start to switch to the next investment category: small- and midcaps. This will improve liquidity in the sector.

(MEI - 10/06/09)